Abstract: Objective The research aims to investigate the application of time series analysis method on time series datum, and establish forecasting model on cholecystitis incidence rate in Haixizhou region. Methods Based on the theory of time series model, through time series model some empirical studies into cholecystitis incidence rate have been made. ARMA and ARCH models are built to stimulate and forecast the pattern of the rate. Results The predicted result of ARCH model is more fitted than that of ARMA model and the ARCH model can describe the dynamic characteristics of cholecystitis incidence rate. Conclusion ARMA (4, 2)-ARCH (2) model can be used as the forecasting model of cholecystitis incidence rate in Haixizhou region.