Abstract: Objective To establish a risk prediction model for frailty in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and verify its prediction effect. Methods A classic sampling method was used to collect samples from 360 patients with inflammatory bowel disease who were hospitalized in the Department of Gastroenterology of Peking Union Medical College Hospital from July 2021 to November 2021. According to the evaluation results of the FRAIL Scale (FS), patients were divided into two group: frail group and non-frail group. The differences of demographic factors and disease related factors between the two categories of patients were compared. Randomized number method was used to divide the model group and verification group at a ratio of 8∶2. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish a risk prediction model. Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² was used to test the prediction model fitting effect, and receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) was drawn. Area under ROC curve (AUC) and Youden index were calculated to evaluate the differentiation ability of the prediction model. Results The incidence of frailty in patients with inflammatory bowel disease was 16.6%. Age (OR=1.041), emaciation (OR=10.135), several times of exercise per month (OR=0.345), ulcerative colitis (OR=2.952), quality of life (OR=0.979), family care index (OR=1.629), depression (OR=1.194) and sleep disorders (OR=1.158) were independent influencing factors (P<0.05). The results of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that χ²=1.594, P=0.991, AUC=0.934 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI: 0.901~0.966), the maximum Youden index was 0.728, the optimal critical value was 0.128, the sensitivity was 92.0%, and the specificity was 81.8%. The validation results show that the sensitivity of the model is 88.9%, the specificity is 72.6%, and the accuracy is 91.55%. Conclusions The prediction effect of the risk prediction model is good, which can provide a reference for clinical evaluation of the frail risk of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

Key words: inflammatory bowel disease, ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease, frailty, risk prediction