目的:运用数理统计的方法对长效药物释放过程进行预测,从理论上探索灰色理论在药物长效释放领域中的应用,进而提出灰色理论在预测中的适用性与科学性。方法:制备甲氨蝶呤毫微囊作为实验体系,根据灰色预测数学模型,借助计算机运算,预测甲氨蝶呤毫微囊的释药过程,对预测结果进行定量与定性分析,计算预测误差,评估预测精度。结果:预测结果与实测值偏差不大,在误差允许范围内,预测精度较高。结论:灰色理论可用于预测长效药物释放体系的药物释放过程。

OBJECTIVE:Grey theory,a kind of statistics method,was explored to predict long period drug release.Its validity was demonstrated.METHODS:By using grey theory,the GM(1,1) math model of drug release was constructed according to short time release data and employed to forecast long period release of methotrexate (MTX) from nanocapsules,attached with computer data processing.At the same time,the difference between factual value and predicting value was analyzed.By this way,this method was evaluated.RESULTS:The study showed that the math model may predict the release effectively and the result errors were satisfying.CONCLUSION:Grey theory can be used to precisely predict long period drug release process.