Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the demographic and regional disparities in the global burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the evolution trends from 2022 to 2040. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021). We analyzed prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), and projected trends from 2022 to 2040 using Joinpoint regression and Bayesian Meta-regression models. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of AD showed an overall upward trend. The number of prevalent cases increased from 21.8024 million to 56.8641 million, representing a 160.83% increase, while the age-standardized prevalence rate rose from 672.26 per 100000 to 694.12 per 100000, with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.10% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.13%). During the same period, the age-standardized incidence rate increased from 117.02 per 100000 to 120.04 per 100000, although trends varied across SDI regions, with a decline observed in high-SDI regions and more pronounced increases in high-middle-SDI regions and middle-SDI regions. In terms of mortality, the number of AD-related deaths increased substantially, whereas the age-standardized mortality remained generally stable, rising from 27.63 per 100000 to 27.91 per 100000 in females and from 20.22 per 100000 to 20.73 per 100000 in males. Regarding DALY, the global age-standardized DALY changed little overall, increasing from 446.26 per 100000 to 451.03 per 100000; in females, it rose from 495.44 per 100000 to 505.32 per 100000, and in males from 363.16 per 100000 to 373.21 per 100000. Conclusions: The global burden of AD was more pronounced among females, older adults and populations in high-middle-SDI regions and middle-SDI regions. Without intervention, AD burden will rise further. Preventive strategies addressing equitable healthcare investment are urgently needed to slow the global rise in AD.

Key words: Alzheimer disease, Global burden of disease, Prevalence, Incidence, Mortality, Life expectancy, Risk factors, Epidemiologic studies, China

摘要：

目的: 分析1990-2021年阿尔茨海默病全球疾病负担的人口学与地区差异，并预测2022-2040年演变趋势。方法: 基于2021年全球疾病负担数据，按照性别、年龄和社会人口学指数（SDI）分析阿尔茨海默病患病率、发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALY），采用Joinpoint回归模型和贝叶斯元回归模型预测2022-2040年趋势。结果: 1990-2021年，阿尔茨海默病全球疾病负担总体呈现升高趋势，病例数由2180.24万例增至5686.41万例，增长160.83%；年龄标准化患病率由672.26/10万增至694.12/10万，平均年百分比变化（AAPC）0.10%（95%CI：0.08%~0.13%）。年龄标准化发病率由117.02/10万增至120.04/10万，呈轻度上升趋势，不同SDI地区变化不一，高SDI地区下降、高-中SDI和中SDI地区则升高显著。阿尔茨海默病相关死亡例数明显增加，但年龄标准化死亡率总体保持稳定，女性由27.63/10万略增至27.91/10万，男性由20.22/10万略增至20.73/10万。年龄标准化DALY由446.26/10万增至451.03/10万，总体保持稳定，女性由495.44/10万增至505.32/10万，男性由363.16/10万增至373.21/10万。结论: 阿尔茨海默病全球疾病负担在女性、高龄人群及高-中SDI和中SDI地区更显著。若缺乏有效干预，阿尔茨海默病疾病负担将持续加重，亟待加大公平医疗资源投入，以减缓全球阿尔茨海默病增长趋势。

关键词: 阿尔茨海默病, 全球疾病负担, 患病率, 发病率, 死亡率, 预期寿命, 危险因素, 流行病学研究, 中国

CLC Number: 

• R741

• R181